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meritocratic
regular
democratic
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alive
64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
315
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
280
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
225
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument
Scott Alexander
12y
193
195
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
159
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
143
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
104
Disputing Definitions
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
46
104
Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
18
101
Model Combination and Adjustment
lukeprog
9y
41
93
Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
42
91
"Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter
Eliezer Yudkowsky
12y
103
88
Explain/Worship/Ignore?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
87
85
In praise of fake frameworks
Valentine
5y
14
84
Gears vs Behavior
johnswentworth
3y
12
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
243
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
162
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
122
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
120
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
110
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
99
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
92
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
73
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
70
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
63
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2