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regular
democratic
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alive
64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
297
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
268
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
242
Confidence levels inside and outside an argument
Scott Alexander
12y
193
174
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
140
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
117
Model Combination and Adjustment
lukeprog
9y
41
117
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
104
"Outside View!" as Conversation-Halter
Eliezer Yudkowsky
12y
103
91
Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
18
90
Homeostasis and “Root Causes” in Aging
johnswentworth
2y
25
88
Hearsay, Double Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates
Mass_Driver
10y
107
82
Wrinkles
johnswentworth
3y
15
80
Gears vs Behavior
johnswentworth
3y
12
80
Reality has a surprising amount of detail
jsalvatier
5y
24
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
208
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
173
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
122
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
119
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
108
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
107
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199
102
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
78
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
66
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
62
[AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century?
Rohin Shah
1y
5