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64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
297
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
34
Why So Many Cookie Banners?
jefftk
2mo
28
268
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
12
Concrete Advice for Forming Inside Views on AI Safety
Neel Nanda
4mo
6
5
"Giftedness" and Genius, Crucial Differences
ArthurLidia
3y
0
27
The map has gears. They don't always turn.
abramdemski
4y
0
16
Choosing the right ask for a context
ChristianKl
1y
6
34
Work harder on tabooing "Friendly AI"
ChrisHallquist
10y
52
19
In favor of tabooing the word “values” and using only “priorities” instead
chaosmage
4y
11
6
Outside View as the Main Debiasing Technique
abramdemski
5y
4
73
Disputing Definitions
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
46
0
Is Legal Reasoning Fundamentally Irrational?
ThomasMore
1y
4
24
Taboo "rationality," please.
MBlume
13y
54
34
When Gears Go Wrong
Matt Goldenberg
2y
6
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
-6
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
-16
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
60
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
5
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
31
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
1
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
0
In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?
amarai
3mo
4
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
6
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3