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94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
-6
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
-16
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
60
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
31
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
0
In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?
amarai
3mo
4
6
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
47
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
18
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
46
On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander
7y
5
19
My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections
elifland
1y
3
5
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
1
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
50
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
4
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (31st Oct - 6th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
7
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
11
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
24
Dec 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
2y
2
42
June gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
8
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
49
Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
gwern
8y
32
27
January 2020 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
2y
0
26
March 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
3y
9