Go Back
Choose this branch
You can't go any further
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
369
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
-4
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
-3
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14
91
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
50
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
259
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
35
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
3
In forecasting, how do accuracy, calibration and reliability relate to each other?
amarai
3mo
4
12
$13,000 of prizes for changing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament)
spencerg
3mo
3
63
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
20
PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind
eigen
4mo
4
50
On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander
7y
5
23
My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections
elifland
1y
3
12
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (10 - 16 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
2mo
4
21
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
6
What AI newsletters or substacks about AI do you recommend?
wunan
25d
1
57
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (21 Aug - 27 Aug 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
4
63
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
12
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (31st Oct - 6th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
13
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (24 - 30th Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
1
24
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5 - 11 Sep 22')
Zoe Williams
3mo
0
17
Dec 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
2y
2
34
June gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
10
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
38
Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
gwern
8y
32
19
January 2020 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
2y
0
19
March 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
3y
9