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94 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Technological Forecasting
51 posts
Newsletters
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
208
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
173
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
122
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
119
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
108
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
107
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199
102
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
78
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
66
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
60
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
62
[AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century?
Rohin Shah
1y
5
57
Recent updates to gwern.net (2015-2016)
gwern
6y
6
56
Recent updates to gwern.net (2011)
gwern
11y
18
50
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
49
Recent updates to gwern.net (2013-2014)
gwern
8y
32
46
Recent updates to gwern.net (2014-2015)
gwern
7y
3
44
November 2018 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
42
June gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0
42
Announcing LessWrong Digest
Evan_Gaensbauer
7y
18
39
June 2019 gwern.net newsletter
gwern
3y
0
38
Bi-weekly Rational Feed
sapphire
5y
4
34
May gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
3
32
Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
NunoSempere
9mo
0
31
July gwern.net newsletter
gwern
4y
0