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85 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
9 posts
Technological Forecasting
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
208
Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Amandango
2y
91
173
16 types of useful predictions
Julia_Galef
7y
55
143
Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
Stuart_Armstrong
2y
21
122
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
NunoSempere
2y
29
119
How to evaluate (50%) predictions
Rafael Harth
2y
50
108
AGI Predictions
Amandango
2y
36
107
Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
lukeprog
11y
199
102
S-Curves for Trend Forecasting
Matt Goldenberg
3y
22
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
66
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11
60
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
52
[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – Models of impact and challenges
jacobjacob
3y
29
50
Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021
NunoSempere
10mo
6
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
78
A prior for technological discontinuities
NunoSempere
2y
17
46
Long-Term Technological Forecasting
lukeprog
10y
3
30
How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
jacobjacob
3y
3
23
Futurism's Track Record
lukeprog
8y
17
7
General-purpose forecasting and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
0
7
Futures studies: the field and the associated community
VipulNaik
8y
2
-6
There’s One Thing Futurists are Never Wrong About
Alex Beyman
2mo
45
-16
What "The Message" Was For Me
Alex Beyman
2mo
14