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regular
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alive
64 posts
Distinctions
Gears-Level
Inside/Outside View
Law and Legal systems
Rationalist Taboo
Risk Management
References (Language)
145 posts
Forecasting & Prediction
Newsletters
Technological Forecasting
34
Why So Many Cookie Banners?
jefftk
2mo
28
297
Taboo "Outside View"
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
26
174
Almost everyone should be less afraid of lawsuits
alyssavance
1y
16
268
“PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
AnnaSalamon
1y
92
12
Concrete Advice for Forming Inside Views on AI Safety
Neel Nanda
4mo
6
117
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
johnswentworth
3y
30
90
Homeostasis and “Root Causes” in Aging
johnswentworth
2y
25
75
Adaptive Immune System Aging
johnswentworth
2y
9
78
Material Goods as an Abundant Resource
johnswentworth
2y
9
60
Multitudinous outside views
Davidmanheim
2y
13
82
Wrinkles
johnswentworth
3y
15
80
Gears vs Behavior
johnswentworth
3y
12
140
Gears in understanding
Valentine
5y
38
59
The Lens, Progerias and Polycausality
johnswentworth
2y
8
35
Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
tailcalled
10d
0
1
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (12th Dec - 18th Dec 22')
Zoe Williams
14h
0
23
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (14th Nov - 27th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
21d
1
31
Some research ideas in forecasting
Jsevillamol
1mo
2
50
QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Quintin Pope
2mo
2
60
Dan Luu on Futurist Predictions
RobertM
3mo
9
15
EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (7th Nov - 13th Nov 22')
Zoe Williams
1mo
0
92
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
HoldenKarnofsky
5mo
23
86
Beware boasting about non-existent forecasting track records
Jotto999
7mo
110
226
What 2026 looks like
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
98
47
A time-invariant version of Laplace's rule
Jsevillamol
5mo
5
15
Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
ChristianWilliams
2mo
0
15
[MLSN #6]: Transparency survey, provable robustness, ML models that predict the future
Dan H
2mo
0
66
Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
SimonM
9mo
11