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47 posts
Probability & Statistics
13 posts
Fermi Estimation
51
Why square errors?
Aprillion (Peter Hozák)
24d
10
140
Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence
TheMcDouglas
2mo
16
10
The highest-probability outcome can be out of distribution
tailcalled
1mo
5
154
The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
Scott Alexander
4y
37
50
A Butterfly's View of Probability
Gabriel Wu
6mo
17
32
Trust in Bayes
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
28
56
Two Dark Side Statistics Papers
Scott Alexander
8y
4
17
Visualizing the power of multiple step selection processes in JS: Galton's bean machine
gwern
3y
2
70
Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
6
75
Simpson's Paradox
bentarm
11y
58
17
Most likely is not likely
Malmesbury
10mo
2
24
Quadratic models and (un)falsified data
Bucky
2y
8
30
The dangers of zero and one
PhilGoetz
9y
68
10
Book Review - Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game!
ryan_b
4y
9
12
The impact you might have working on AI safety
Fabien Roger
6mo
1
11
Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing
XiXiDu
11y
9
109
Fermi Estimates
lukeprog
9y
110
20
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research
owencb
8y
2
19
Probability and Politics
CarlShulman
12y
31
6
How much memory is reserved for cute kitten pictures?
Bezzi
1y
3
18
Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs
ChrisHallquist
9y
40
6
How to estimate confidence intervals for fermi estimate?
Sønderjye
10mo
7
10
Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems
owencb
8y
15
20
Dialectical Bootstrapping
Johnicholas
13y
8
7
Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?
tgb
10y
46
25
What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
Eli Tyre
1y
15
93
How To Fermi Model
habryka
2y
9