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47 posts
Probability & Statistics
13 posts
Fermi Estimation
51
Why square errors?
Aprillion (Peter Hozák)
24d
10
140
Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence
TheMcDouglas
2mo
16
93
Report likelihood ratios
Ege Erdil
8mo
9
50
A Butterfly's View of Probability
Gabriel Wu
6mo
17
10
The highest-probability outcome can be out of distribution
tailcalled
1mo
5
145
How long does it take to become Gaussian?
Maxwell Peterson
2y
38
57
Laplace's rule of succession
Ege Erdil
1y
2
70
Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
6
154
The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
Scott Alexander
4y
37
247
Why the tails come apart
Thrasymachus
8y
100
17
Most likely is not likely
Malmesbury
10mo
2
20
What is a probabilistic physical theory?
Ege Erdil
12mo
36
48
Effect heterogeneity and external validity in medicine
Anders_H
3y
14
21
Hypothesis Space Entropy
lsusr
1y
2
93
How To Fermi Model
habryka
2y
9
12
The impact you might have working on AI safety
Fabien Roger
6mo
1
25
What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
Eli Tyre
1y
15
109
Fermi Estimates
lukeprog
9y
110
6
How to estimate confidence intervals for fermi estimate?
Sønderjye
10mo
7
6
How much memory is reserved for cute kitten pictures?
Bezzi
1y
3
20
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research
owencb
8y
2
18
Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs
ChrisHallquist
9y
40
19
Probability and Politics
CarlShulman
12y
31
20
Dialectical Bootstrapping
Johnicholas
13y
8
10
Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems
owencb
8y
15
11
Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing
XiXiDu
11y
9
7
Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?
tgb
10y
46