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47 posts
Probability & Statistics
13 posts
Fermi Estimation
247
Why the tails come apart
Thrasymachus
8y
100
154
The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
Scott Alexander
4y
37
145
How long does it take to become Gaussian?
Maxwell Peterson
2y
38
140
Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence
TheMcDouglas
2mo
16
120
0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
144
114
New Improved Lottery
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
43
93
Report likelihood ratios
Ege Erdil
8mo
9
75
Simpson's Paradox
bentarm
11y
58
70
Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
6
57
Laplace's rule of succession
Ege Erdil
1y
2
56
Two Dark Side Statistics Papers
Scott Alexander
8y
4
51
Why square errors?
Aprillion (Peter Hozák)
24d
10
50
A Butterfly's View of Probability
Gabriel Wu
6mo
17
48
Effect heterogeneity and external validity in medicine
Anders_H
3y
14
109
Fermi Estimates
lukeprog
9y
110
93
How To Fermi Model
habryka
2y
9
25
What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
Eli Tyre
1y
15
20
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research
owencb
8y
2
20
Dialectical Bootstrapping
Johnicholas
13y
8
19
Probability and Politics
CarlShulman
12y
31
18
Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs
ChrisHallquist
9y
40
12
The impact you might have working on AI safety
Fabien Roger
6mo
1
11
Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing
XiXiDu
11y
9
10
Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems
owencb
8y
15
7
Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?
tgb
10y
46
6
How much memory is reserved for cute kitten pictures?
Bezzi
1y
3
6
How to estimate confidence intervals for fermi estimate?
Sønderjye
10mo
7