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47 posts
Probability & Statistics
13 posts
Fermi Estimation
313
Why the tails come apart
Thrasymachus
8y
100
123
How long does it take to become Gaussian?
Maxwell Peterson
2y
38
120
The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
Scott Alexander
4y
37
119
Simpson's Paradox
bentarm
11y
58
88
Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence
TheMcDouglas
2mo
16
76
0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
144
72
New Improved Lottery
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
43
67
Report likelihood ratios
Ege Erdil
8mo
9
66
The dangers of zero and one
PhilGoetz
9y
68
60
On the Importance of Systematic Biases in Science
gwern
9y
14
56
Subtext is not invariant under linear transformations
PhilGoetz
12y
13
54
Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
6
54
Correspondence visualizations for different interpretations of "probability"
So8res
3y
3
54
Covariance in your sample vs covariance in the general population
RomeoStevens
10y
3
109
Fermi Estimates
lukeprog
9y
110
77
How To Fermi Model
habryka
2y
9
49
What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
Eli Tyre
1y
15
42
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research
owencb
8y
2
37
Probability and Politics
CarlShulman
12y
31
32
Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs
ChrisHallquist
9y
40
24
Dialectical Bootstrapping
Johnicholas
13y
8
19
Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing
XiXiDu
11y
9
18
Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems
owencb
8y
15
15
Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?
tgb
10y
46
2
How much memory is reserved for cute kitten pictures?
Bezzi
1y
3
0
How to estimate confidence intervals for fermi estimate?
Sønderjye
10mo
7
-2
The impact you might have working on AI safety
Fabien Roger
6mo
1