Go Back
You can't go any further
You can't go any further
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
47 posts
Probability & Statistics
13 posts
Fermi Estimation
29
Why square errors?
Aprillion (Peter Hozák)
24d
10
88
Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence
TheMcDouglas
2mo
16
16
The highest-probability outcome can be out of distribution
tailcalled
1mo
5
67
Report likelihood ratios
Ege Erdil
8mo
9
123
How long does it take to become Gaussian?
Maxwell Peterson
2y
38
37
Laplace's rule of succession
Ege Erdil
1y
2
54
Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
6
313
Why the tails come apart
Thrasymachus
8y
100
120
The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
Scott Alexander
4y
37
17
Most likely is not likely
Malmesbury
10mo
2
8
A Butterfly's View of Probability
Gabriel Wu
6mo
17
50
Effect heterogeneity and external validity in medicine
Anders_H
3y
14
54
Correspondence visualizations for different interpretations of "probability"
So8res
3y
3
40
Quadratic models and (un)falsified data
Bucky
2y
8
49
What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
Eli Tyre
1y
15
77
How To Fermi Model
habryka
2y
9
109
Fermi Estimates
lukeprog
9y
110
42
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research
owencb
8y
2
32
Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs
ChrisHallquist
9y
40
37
Probability and Politics
CarlShulman
12y
31
18
Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems
owencb
8y
15
2
How much memory is reserved for cute kitten pictures?
Bezzi
1y
3
24
Dialectical Bootstrapping
Johnicholas
13y
8
19
Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing
XiXiDu
11y
9
15
Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?
tgb
10y
46
0
How to estimate confidence intervals for fermi estimate?
Sønderjye
10mo
7
-2
The impact you might have working on AI safety
Fabien Roger
6mo
1