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47 posts
Probability & Statistics
13 posts
Fermi Estimation
280
Why the tails come apart
Thrasymachus
8y
100
137
The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
Scott Alexander
4y
37
134
How long does it take to become Gaussian?
Maxwell Peterson
2y
38
114
Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence
TheMcDouglas
2mo
16
98
0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
144
97
Simpson's Paradox
bentarm
11y
58
93
New Improved Lottery
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
43
80
Report likelihood ratios
Ege Erdil
8mo
9
62
Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books
Jan Christian Refsgaard
1y
6
49
Effect heterogeneity and external validity in medicine
Anders_H
3y
14
48
The dangers of zero and one
PhilGoetz
9y
68
47
Laplace's rule of succession
Ege Erdil
1y
2
47
Subtext is not invariant under linear transformations
PhilGoetz
12y
13
44
Excessive EDA Effortposting
abstractapplic
4y
2
109
Fermi Estimates
lukeprog
9y
110
85
How To Fermi Model
habryka
2y
9
37
What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
Eli Tyre
1y
15
31
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research
owencb
8y
2
28
Probability and Politics
CarlShulman
12y
31
25
Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs
ChrisHallquist
9y
40
22
Dialectical Bootstrapping
Johnicholas
13y
8
15
Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing
XiXiDu
11y
9
14
Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems
owencb
8y
15
11
Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?
tgb
10y
46
5
The impact you might have working on AI safety
Fabien Roger
6mo
1
4
How much memory is reserved for cute kitten pictures?
Bezzi
1y
3
3
How to estimate confidence intervals for fermi estimate?
Sønderjye
10mo
7