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meritocratic
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alive
99 posts
AI Timelines
Dialogue (format)
Agent Foundations
98 posts
AI Takeoff
DeepMind
125
Updating my AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
15d
40
33
How important are accurate AI timelines for the optimal spending schedule on AI risk interventions?
Tristan Cook
4d
2
394
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
2mo
126
182
Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs
guzey
25d
13
48
Human-level Diplomacy was my fire alarm
Lao Mein
27d
15
13
Benchmarks for Comparing Human and AI Intelligence
ViktorThink
9d
4
88
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
332
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
0
AGI in our lifetimes is wishful thinking
niknoble
1mo
21
18
Is the speed of training large models going to increase significantly in the near future due to Cerebras Andromeda?
Amal
1mo
11
25
Foresight for AGI Safety Strategy: Mitigating Risks and Identifying Golden Opportunities
jacquesthibs
15d
4
44
Has anyone increased their AGI timelines?
Darren McKee
1mo
13
67
Human-level Full-Press Diplomacy (some bare facts).
Cleo Nardo
28d
7
38
AGI Timelines Are Mostly Not Strategically Relevant To Alignment
johnswentworth
3mo
35
4
Will the first AGI agent have been designed as an agent (in addition to an AGI)?
nahoj
17d
8
209
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
432
DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments
Vika
4mo
34
77
Paper: Discovering novel algorithms with AlphaTensor [Deepmind]
LawrenceC
2mo
18
273
Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
jacob_cannell
11mo
87
110
Caution when interpreting Deepmind's In-context RL paper
Sam Marks
1mo
6
46
How should DeepMind's Chinchilla revise our AI forecasts?
Cleo Nardo
3mo
12
-13
Why some people believe in AGI, but I don't.
cveres
1mo
6
24
Three Alignment Schemas & Their Problems
Shoshannah Tekofsky
24d
1
39
Paper: In-context Reinforcement Learning with Algorithm Distillation [Deepmind]
LawrenceC
1mo
5
48
Report from a civilizational observer on Earth
owencb
5mo
12
84
Discovering Agents
zac_kenton
4mo
8
66
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4
21
Is there a culture overhang?
Aleksi Liimatainen
2mo
4