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99 posts
AI Timelines
Dialogue (format)
Agent Foundations
98 posts
AI Takeoff
DeepMind
394
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
2mo
126
332
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
314
Why Agent Foundations? An Overly Abstract Explanation
johnswentworth
9mo
54
310
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
291
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
273
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
239
What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022?
KatjaGrace
4mo
33
215
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
209
A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
8mo
104
182
Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs
guzey
25d
13
180
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
175
human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal
nostalgebraist
2y
59
167
Jeff Hawkins on neuromorphic AGI within 20 years
Steven Byrnes
3y
24
159
Contra EY: Can AGI destroy us without trial & error?
Nikita Sokolsky
6mo
76
432
DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments
Vika
4mo
34
273
Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
jacob_cannell
11mo
87
209
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
166
My Overview of the AI Alignment Landscape: A Bird's Eye View
Neel Nanda
1y
9
154
The unexpected difficulty of comparing AlphaStar to humans
Richard Korzekwa
3y
36
147
The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
32
130
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16
127
Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage
Daniel Kokotajlo
3y
46
126
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
123
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
115
Possible takeaways from the coronavirus pandemic for slow AI takeoff
Vika
2y
36
114
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
110
Caution when interpreting Deepmind's In-context RL paper
Sam Marks
1mo
6
97
AlphaStar: Impressive for RL progress, not for AGI progress
orthonormal
3y
58