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99 posts
AI Timelines
Dialogue (format)
Agent Foundations
98 posts
AI Takeoff
DeepMind
287
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
269
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
2mo
126
255
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
247
Why Agent Foundations? An Overly Abstract Explanation
johnswentworth
9mo
54
217
What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022?
KatjaGrace
4mo
33
212
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
207
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
195
A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
8mo
104
181
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
174
human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal
nostalgebraist
2y
59
167
Jeff Hawkins on neuromorphic AGI within 20 years
Steven Byrnes
3y
24
164
Deepmind's Gato: Generalist Agent
Daniel Kokotajlo
7mo
61
155
Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs
guzey
25d
13
137
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
364
DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments
Vika
4mo
34
195
Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
jacob_cannell
11mo
87
191
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
149
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
144
The unexpected difficulty of comparing AlphaStar to humans
Richard Korzekwa
3y
36
135
Possible takeaways from the coronavirus pandemic for slow AI takeoff
Vika
2y
36
131
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16
129
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
121
Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage
Daniel Kokotajlo
3y
46
117
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
116
The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Daniel Kokotajlo
2y
32
113
AlphaStar: Impressive for RL progress, not for AGI progress
orthonormal
3y
58
111
My Overview of the AI Alignment Landscape: A Bird's Eye View
Neel Nanda
1y
9
107
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31