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99 posts
AI Timelines
Dialogue (format)
Agent Foundations
98 posts
AI Takeoff
DeepMind
242
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
200
Are we in an AI overhang?
Andy Jones
2y
109
195
What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022?
KatjaGrace
4mo
33
182
Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
143
181
A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
8mo
104
180
Why Agent Foundations? An Overly Abstract Explanation
johnswentworth
9mo
54
173
human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal
nostalgebraist
2y
59
167
Jeff Hawkins on neuromorphic AGI within 20 years
Steven Byrnes
3y
24
151
Comments on Carlsmith's “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
So8res
1y
13
144
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
2mo
126
143
Updating my AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
15d
40
141
Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
2y
56
133
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
78
131
Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
95
296
DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments
Vika
4mo
34
175
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
173
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
155
Possible takeaways from the coronavirus pandemic for slow AI takeoff
Vika
2y
36
134
The unexpected difficulty of comparing AlphaStar to humans
Richard Korzekwa
3y
36
132
Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
16
132
Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
61
129
AlphaStar: Impressive for RL progress, not for AGI progress
orthonormal
3y
58
126
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31
120
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
117
Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
jacob_cannell
11mo
87
115
Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage
Daniel Kokotajlo
3y
46
100
For FAI: Is "Molecular Nanotechnology" putting our best foot forward?
leplen
9y
118
98
Caution when interpreting Deepmind's In-context RL paper
Sam Marks
1mo
6