Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
99 posts
AI Timelines
Dialogue (format)
Agent Foundations
98 posts
AI Takeoff
DeepMind
143
Updating my AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
15d
40
21
How important are accurate AI timelines for the optimal spending schedule on AI risk interventions?
Tristan Cook
4d
2
128
Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs
guzey
25d
13
54
Human-level Diplomacy was my fire alarm
Lao Mein
27d
15
56
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
144
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
2mo
126
242
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
33
Human-level Full-Press Diplomacy (some bare facts).
Cleo Nardo
28d
7
195
What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022?
KatjaGrace
4mo
33
97
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
32
Has anyone increased their AGI timelines?
Darren McKee
1mo
13
181
A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
8mo
104
180
Why Agent Foundations? An Overly Abstract Explanation
johnswentworth
9mo
54
12
Injecting some numbers into the AGI debate - by Boaz Barak
Jsevillamol
27d
0
296
DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments
Vika
4mo
34
98
Caution when interpreting Deepmind's In-context RL paper
Sam Marks
1mo
6
83
Paper: Discovering novel algorithms with AlphaTensor [Deepmind]
LawrenceC
2mo
18
50
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4
175
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
5
I Believe we are in a Hardware Overhang
nem
12d
0
120
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
8
Three Alignment Schemas & Their Problems
Shoshannah Tekofsky
24d
1
173
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
17
Paper: In-context Reinforcement Learning with Algorithm Distillation [Deepmind]
LawrenceC
1mo
5
81
"Tech company singularities", and steering them to reduce x-risk
Andrew_Critch
7mo
12
50
Report from a civilizational observer on Earth
owencb
5mo
12
117
Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
jacob_cannell
11mo
87
126
Conversation on technology forecasting and gradualism
Richard_Ngo
1y
31