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meritocratic
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alive
99 posts
AI Timelines
Dialogue (format)
Agent Foundations
98 posts
AI Takeoff
DeepMind
134
Updating my AI timelines
Matthew Barnett
15d
40
27
How important are accurate AI timelines for the optimal spending schedule on AI risk interventions?
Tristan Cook
4d
2
155
Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs
guzey
25d
13
269
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
porby
2mo
126
72
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
Marius Hobbhahn
1mo
16
51
Human-level Diplomacy was my fire alarm
Lao Mein
27d
15
50
Human-level Full-Press Diplomacy (some bare facts).
Cleo Nardo
28d
7
287
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra
4mo
60
217
What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022?
KatjaGrace
4mo
33
8
Benchmarks for Comparing Human and AI Intelligence
ViktorThink
9d
4
12
Foresight for AGI Safety Strategy: Mitigating Risks and Identifying Golden Opportunities
jacquesthibs
15d
4
38
Has anyone increased their AGI timelines?
Darren McKee
1mo
13
107
How might we align transformative AI if it’s developed very soon?
HoldenKarnofsky
3mo
17
247
Why Agent Foundations? An Overly Abstract Explanation
johnswentworth
9mo
54
364
DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments
Vika
4mo
34
104
Caution when interpreting Deepmind's In-context RL paper
Sam Marks
1mo
6
80
Paper: Discovering novel algorithms with AlphaTensor [Deepmind]
LawrenceC
2mo
18
8
I Believe we are in a Hardware Overhang
nem
12d
0
16
Three Alignment Schemas & Their Problems
Shoshannah Tekofsky
24d
1
58
my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
carado
2mo
4
2
AI overhangs depend on whether algorithms, compute and data are substitutes or complements
NathanBarnard
4d
0
28
Paper: In-context Reinforcement Learning with Algorithm Distillation [Deepmind]
LawrenceC
1mo
5
149
Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
johnswentworth
8mo
130
195
Brain Efficiency: Much More than You Wanted to Know
jacob_cannell
11mo
87
56
Discovering Agents
zac_kenton
4mo
8
117
Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
Buck
8mo
25
191
Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"
Eliezer Yudkowsky
1y
181
34
How should DeepMind's Chinchilla revise our AI forecasts?
Cleo Nardo
3mo
12