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37 posts
Planning & Decision-Making
Time (value of)
Bayesian Decision Theory
Tradeoffs
6 posts
Planning Fallacy
Analogy
284
Leaky Delegation: You are not a Commodity
Darmani
1y
34
206
The correct response to uncertainty is *not* half-speed
AnnaSalamon
6y
44
206
Simulate and Defer To More Rational Selves
LoganStrohl
8y
115
142
Planning Fallacy
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
45
101
How to Measure Anything
lukeprog
9y
52
81
Counterintuitive Comparative Advantage
Wei_Dai
4y
8
74
How Much is Your Time Worth?
lynettebye
3y
22
63
Plans are Recursive & Why This is Important
Ruby
3y
11
57
If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics
Scott Alexander
5y
0
56
Bias in capital project decision making
jsalvatier
11y
23
46
Harder Choices Matter Less
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
24
43
What Makes My Attempt Special?
Andy_McKenzie
12y
22
42
Doing "Nothing"
Voltairina
10y
16
41
Decision Analysis Sequence
Vaniver
11y
6
48
Chapter 6: The Planning Fallacy
Eliezer Yudkowsky
7y
3
36
Surface Analogies and Deep Causes
Eliezer Yudkowsky
14y
32
36
Kahneman's Planning Anecdote
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
8
21
The Outside View isn't magic
Stuart_Armstrong
5y
4
12
Private Manned Moonbase in the 1990s, Yet Another Planning Fallacy
DavidPlumpton
11y
4
6
A New Way to Visualize Biases
dtm
2y
16