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74 posts
Rationality
Cognitive bias
Scope neglect
Giving and happiness
Thinking at the margin
Conflict theory vs. mistake theory
48 posts
Epistemology
Statistics
Bayesian epistemology
Optimizer's curse
Bayes' Theorem
166
Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
Gregory Lewis
6y
22
98
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
87
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
84
Outline of Galef's "Scout Mindset"
RobBensinger
1y
9
56
Potential downsides of using explicit probabilities
MichaelA
2y
22
54
Beware Invisible Mistakes
kuhanj
7mo
5
54
Know what you're optimising for
alexrjl
5mo
2
54
Scout Mindset Poster
Anthony Fleming
2mo
8
48
What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?
Linch
2y
31
47
Value of Life: VSL Estimates vs Community Perspective Evaluations
Joel Tan (CEARCH)
3mo
4
45
Reality has a surprising amount of detail
Aaron Gertler
1y
0
44
Binding Fuzzies and Utilons Together
eleni
2y
8
42
Giving more won't make you happier
Milan_Griffes
4y
24
37
Rationality vs. Rationalization: Reflecting on motivated beliefs
alexlintz
4y
2
244
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
218
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
177
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
162
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
89
Deference for Bayesians
John G. Halstead
1y
30
89
Limits to Legibility
Jan_Kulveit
5mo
3
87
[Link] The Optimizer's Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions
Chris Smith
3y
61
73
Disagreeables and Assessors: Two Intellectual Archetypes
Ozzie Gooen
1y
20
72
Bayesian Mindset
Holden Karnofsky
12mo
19
48
Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading
Lorenzo Buonanno
5mo
52
41
Don't Over-Optimize Things
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
7
40
[Stats4EA] Expectations are not Outcomes
matthewp
2y
5
37
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
28
Take care with notation for uncertain quantities
Gregory Lewis
2y
2