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74 posts
Rationality
Cognitive bias
Scope neglect
Giving and happiness
Thinking at the margin
Conflict theory vs. mistake theory
48 posts
Epistemology
Statistics
Bayesian epistemology
Optimizer's curse
Bayes' Theorem
167
Beware surprising and suspicious convergence
Gregory Lewis
6y
22
120
Invisible impact loss (and why we can be too error-averse)
Lizka
2mo
14
83
Outline of Galef's "Scout Mindset"
RobBensinger
1y
9
83
Beware frictions from altruistic value differences
Magnus Vinding
19d
6
63
What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?
Linch
2y
31
57
Potential downsides of using explicit probabilities
MichaelA
2y
22
57
Reality has a surprising amount of detail
Aaron Gertler
1y
0
54
Beware Invisible Mistakes
kuhanj
7mo
5
50
Scout Mindset Poster
Anthony Fleming
2mo
8
49
Strong Evidence is Common
Mark Xu
1y
7
49
Value of Life: VSL Estimates vs Community Perspective Evaluations
Joel Tan (CEARCH)
3mo
4
47
Giving more won't make you happier
Milan_Griffes
4y
24
45
Know what you're optimising for
alexrjl
5mo
2
42
Binding Fuzzies and Utilons Together
eleni
2y
8
209
Reality is often underpowered
Gregory Lewis
3y
17
208
Flimsy Pet Theories, Enormous Initiatives
Ozzie Gooen
1y
57
204
List of ways in which cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading
saulius
3y
30
160
Global health is important for the epistemic foundations of EA, even for longtermists
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
16
98
Limits to Legibility
Jan_Kulveit
5mo
3
97
Deference for Bayesians
John G. Halstead
1y
30
85
Disagreeables and Assessors: Two Intellectual Archetypes
Ozzie Gooen
1y
20
84
[Link] The Optimizer's Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions
Chris Smith
3y
61
72
Bayesian Mindset
Holden Karnofsky
12mo
19
66
Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading
Lorenzo Buonanno
5mo
52
52
Don't Over-Optimize Things
Owen Cotton-Barratt
6mo
7
41
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
2
39
Take care with notation for uncertain quantities
Gregory Lewis
2y
2
37
[Stats4EA] Expectations are not Outcomes
matthewp
2y
5