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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
105 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Prediction Markets
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
102 posts
Parenting
Family planning
Developmental Psychology
Polyamory
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
60
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
39
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
31
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
123
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
25
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
0
How "should" counterfactual prediction markets work?
eapi
5mo
6
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
4
Can we model technological singularity as the phase transition?
Just Learning
1y
3
28
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
7
Interesting predictions on manifold.markets
jmh
2mo
1
37
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
34
More notes from raising a late-talking kid
Steven Byrnes
21h
1
47
Nook Nature
Duncan_Sabien
15d
17
333
Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners
jefftk
1y
35
14
Will you let your kid play football?
5hout
2mo
12
19
Is Santa Real?
thomblake
13y
78
56
Babysitting as Parenting Trial?
jefftk
5mo
19
33
Sleep Training
jefftk
2mo
4
18
Playground Game: Monster
jefftk
1mo
2
52
Another Calming Example
jefftk
6mo
13
39
Late-talking kids and "Einstein syndrome"
Steven Byrnes
1y
27
50
[Link] Childcare : what the science says
Gunnar_Zarncke
5mo
4
2
Happiness and Children
Carinthium
8y
30
50
Parenting and Happiness
jefftk
10y
41
22
Rhythmic Baby Toys
jefftk
2mo
1