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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
105 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Prediction Markets
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
102 posts
Parenting
Family planning
Developmental Psychology
Polyamory
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
21
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
14
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
39
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
60
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
39
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
31
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
79
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
25
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
48
Predicting for charity
Austin Chen
7mo
0
28
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
58
Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
lsusr
10mo
23
34
More notes from raising a late-talking kid
Steven Byrnes
21h
1
47
Nook Nature
Duncan_Sabien
15d
17
18
Playground Game: Monster
jefftk
1mo
2
33
Sleep Training
jefftk
2mo
4
22
Rhythmic Baby Toys
jefftk
2mo
1
333
Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners
jefftk
1y
35
113
Meadow Theory
Duncan_Sabien
9mo
15
56
Babysitting as Parenting Trial?
jefftk
5mo
19
115
Experiences raising children in shared housing
juliawise
12mo
4
50
[Link] Childcare : what the science says
Gunnar_Zarncke
5mo
4
72
Kids Posts Retrospective
jefftk
8mo
1
52
Another Calming Example
jefftk
6mo
13
181
Notes from "Don't Shoot the Dog"
juliawise
1y
10
59
Common Knowledge is a Circle Game for Toddlers
ryan_b
8mo
1