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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
105 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Prediction Markets
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
102 posts
Parenting
Family planning
Developmental Psychology
Polyamory
114
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
31
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0
49
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
78
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
10
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
12
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
44
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
49
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
41
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
13
Information Markets 2: Optimally Shaped Reward Bets
eva_
1mo
0
77
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
27
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
34
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
205
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
22
More notes from raising a late-talking kid
Steven Byrnes
21h
1
61
Nook Nature
Duncan_Sabien
15d
17
14
FMT: a great opportunity for soon-to-be parents
Anton Rodenhauser
10d
0
39
Sleep Training
jefftk
2mo
4
475
Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners
jefftk
1y
35
127
Meadow Theory
Duncan_Sabien
9mo
15
243
Notes from "Don't Shoot the Dog"
juliawise
1y
10
117
Experiences raising children in shared housing
juliawise
12mo
4
10
Playground Game: Monster
jefftk
1mo
2
74
Kids Posts Retrospective
jefftk
8mo
1
40
[Link] Childcare : what the science says
Gunnar_Zarncke
5mo
4
36
Babysitting as Parenting Trial?
jefftk
5mo
19
14
Will you let your kid play football?
5hout
2mo
12
53
Common Knowledge is a Circle Game for Toddlers
ryan_b
8mo
1