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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
69 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Prediction Markets
114
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
31
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0
10
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
12
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
44
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
49
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
41
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
27
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
34
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
61
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
78
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
30
2022 ACX predictions: market prices
Sam Marks
9mo
2
22
How to place a bet on the end of the world
AllAmericanBreakfast
8mo
13
30
Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
Zvi
10mo
11
49
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
78
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
13
Information Markets 2: Optimally Shaped Reward Bets
eva_
1mo
0
77
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
205
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
133
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
38
Predicting for charity
Austin Chen
7mo
0
129
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
44
Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
lsusr
10mo
23
35
Using Prediction Markets to Guide Government Policy
lsusr
8mo
7
37
Bet on Rare Undesirable Outcomes when Seeding a Prediction Market
lsusr
10mo
8
38
Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022
Zvi
11mo
6
44
Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket
Zvi
1y
11
18
How "should" counterfactual prediction markets work?
eapi
5mo
6