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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
69 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Prediction Markets
110
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
26
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0
56
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
13
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
8
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
44
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
33
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
29
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
31
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
56
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
83
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
26
How to place a bet on the end of the world
AllAmericanBreakfast
8mo
13
18
Forecasting Fusion Power
Daniel Kokotajlo
6mo
7
34
Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
Zvi
10mo
11
44
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
69
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
78
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
9
Information Markets 2: Optimally Shaped Reward Bets
eva_
1mo
0
43
Predicting for charity
Austin Chen
7mo
0
128
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
188
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
51
Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
lsusr
10mo
23
37
Using Prediction Markets to Guide Government Policy
lsusr
8mo
7
42
Your Enemies Can Use Your Prediction Markets Against You
lsusr
10mo
22
110
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
38
Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022
Zvi
11mo
6
33
Bet on Rare Undesirable Outcomes when Seeding a Prediction Market
lsusr
10mo
8
39
Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket
Zvi
1y
11