Go Back
Choose this branch
You can't go any further
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
69 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Prediction Markets
110
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
97
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
94
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
91
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
86
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
83
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
70
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
64
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
59
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
56
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
56
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
55
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
55
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
52
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
188
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
146
Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
Zvi
4y
18
128
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
118
Unknown Knowns
Zvi
4y
17
110
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
94
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Zvi
4y
8
83
Prediction Markets Are About Being Right
Zvi
4y
7
78
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
72
1001 PredictionBook Nights
gwern
11y
49
69
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
57
Resolutions to the Challenge of Resolving Forecasts
Davidmanheim
1y
13
51
Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
lsusr
10mo
23
49
On Robin Hanson’s Board Game
Zvi
4y
15
49
Free Money at PredictIt?
Zvi
3y
17