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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
33 posts
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
110
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
97
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
94
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
91
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
83
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
70
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
64
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
59
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
55
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
55
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
52
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
50
Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
MileyCyrus
11y
26
49
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
44
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
86
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
56
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
56
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
SimonM
1y
5
50
Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration
Stuart_Armstrong
10y
39
48
2020's Prediction Thread
bgold
2y
78
47
2010s Predictions Review
Tofly
2y
10
44
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
44
Delegate a Forecast
Amandango
2y
25
43
Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
Amandango
2y
40
34
Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
Zvi
10mo
11
33
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
32
New Year's Predictions Thread
MichaelVassar
12y
454
31
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3