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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
33 posts
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
105
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
102
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
80
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
78
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
75
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
68
Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
MileyCyrus
11y
26
65
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
64
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
61
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
56
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
53
Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself
MBlume
12y
69
47
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
80
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
64
Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration
Stuart_Armstrong
10y
39
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
SimonM
1y
5
51
Delegate a Forecast
Amandango
2y
25
50
2020's Prediction Thread
bgold
2y
78
48
2010s Predictions Review
Tofly
2y
10
39
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
39
2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
Zvi
10mo
2
38
Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
Zvi
10mo
11
34
Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
Amandango
2y
40
33
New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)
gwern
10y
340
33
New Year's Predictions Thread
MichaelVassar
12y
454