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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
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alive
33 posts
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
37
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
14
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
12
Generalized Kelly betting
Linda Linsefors
4y
5
102
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
75
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
9
Ongoing free money at PredictIt
knite
2y
22
28
Bets and updating
Eigil Rischel
3y
3
53
Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself
MBlume
12y
69
61
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
56
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
17
Who wants to be a Millionaire?
Bucky
3y
1
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
31
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
25
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
4
Can we model technological singularity as the phase transition?
Just Learning
1y
3
28
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
48
2010s Predictions Review
Tofly
2y
10
34
Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
Amandango
2y
40
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
33
New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)
gwern
10y
340
23
Notebook for generating forecasting bets
Amandango
2y
0
10
2020 predictions - Politics, Econ, Tech
Bucky
1y
0
24
Forecasting Fusion Power
Daniel Kokotajlo
6mo
7
33
New Year's Predictions Thread
MichaelVassar
12y
454
39
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0