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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
69 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Prediction Markets
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
31
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
25
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
4
Can we model technological singularity as the phase transition?
Just Learning
1y
3
28
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
37
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
48
2010s Predictions Review
Tofly
2y
10
14
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
34
Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
Amandango
2y
40
12
Generalized Kelly betting
Linda Linsefors
4y
5
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
60
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
39
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
123
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
0
How "should" counterfactual prediction markets work?
eapi
5mo
6
7
Interesting predictions on manifold.markets
jmh
2mo
1
39
Using Prediction Markets to Guide Government Policy
lsusr
8mo
7
46
Prediction markets for internet points?
paulfchristiano
3y
9
36
Towards no-math, graphical instructions for prediction markets
ryan_b
3y
9
119
Unknown Knowns
Zvi
4y
17
104
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Zvi
4y
8
48
Predicting for charity
Austin Chen
7mo
0
11
Programmatic Prediction markets
whpearson
13y
19
91
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
5
Information Markets 2: Optimally Shaped Reward Bets
eva_
1mo
0