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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
69 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Prediction Markets
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
21
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
14
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
39
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
31
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
25
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
28
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
24
Forecasting Fusion Power
Daniel Kokotajlo
6mo
7
30
How to place a bet on the end of the world
AllAmericanBreakfast
8mo
13
39
2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
Zvi
10mo
2
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
39
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
60
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
79
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
48
Predicting for charity
Austin Chen
7mo
0
58
Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
lsusr
10mo
23
123
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
55
Your Enemies Can Use Your Prediction Markets Against You
lsusr
10mo
22
171
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
39
Using Prediction Markets to Guide Government Policy
lsusr
8mo
7
5
Information Markets 2: Optimally Shaped Reward Bets
eva_
1mo
0
38
Polymarket Covid-19 1/17/2022
Zvi
11mo
6
7
Interesting predictions on manifold.markets
jmh
2mo
1
91
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
69
Resolutions to the Challenge of Resolving Forecasts
Davidmanheim
1y
13