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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
69 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Prediction Markets
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
105
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
102
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
80
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
80
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
78
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
75
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
68
Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
MileyCyrus
11y
26
65
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
64
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
64
Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration
Stuart_Armstrong
10y
39
61
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
171
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
144
Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
Zvi
4y
18
123
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
119
Unknown Knowns
Zvi
4y
17
104
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Zvi
4y
8
92
1001 PredictionBook Nights
gwern
11y
49
91
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
79
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
77
Prediction Markets Are About Being Right
Zvi
4y
7
69
Resolutions to the Challenge of Resolving Forecasts
Davidmanheim
1y
13
60
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
59
Free Money at PredictIt?
Zvi
3y
17
58
Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
lsusr
10mo
23
56
The Apocalypse Bet
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
51