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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
69 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Prediction Markets
114
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
113
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
92
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
89
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
80
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
78
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
75
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
65
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
61
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
52
Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
Amandango
2y
40
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
SimonM
1y
5
50
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
49
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
49
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
205
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
148
Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
Zvi
4y
18
133
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
129
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
117
Unknown Knowns
Zvi
4y
17
89
Prediction Markets Are About Being Right
Zvi
4y
7
84
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Zvi
4y
8
78
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
77
Anti-Corruption Market
lsusr
8mo
22
57
On Robin Hanson’s Board Game
Zvi
4y
15
52
1001 PredictionBook Nights
gwern
11y
49
49
Information Markets
eva_
1mo
4
48
Prediction markets for internet points?
paulfchristiano
3y
9
45
Resolutions to the Challenge of Resolving Forecasts
Davidmanheim
1y
13