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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
33 posts
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
114
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
113
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
89
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
80
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
78
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
75
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
65
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
50
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
49
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
45
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
42
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
41
Who wants to be a Millionaire?
Bucky
3y
1
41
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
40
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
92
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
61
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
52
Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
Amandango
2y
40
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
SimonM
1y
5
49
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
46
2010s Predictions Review
Tofly
2y
10
46
2020's Prediction Thread
bgold
2y
78
44
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
41
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
37
Delegate a Forecast
Amandango
2y
25
36
Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration
Stuart_Armstrong
10y
39
34
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
31
New Year's Predictions Thread
MichaelVassar
12y
454
31
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0