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alive
21 posts
Betting
12 posts
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
113
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
89
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
80
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
75
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
50
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
45
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
41
Who wants to be a Millionaire?
Bucky
3y
1
40
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
38
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
36
PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
53
34
Bets and updating
Eigil Rischel
3y
3
33
Betting Thread
Amandango
2y
2
32
Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
MileyCyrus
11y
26
31
Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself
MBlume
12y
69
114
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
78
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
65
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
49
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
42
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
41
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
21
Kelly Betting Discussion
Raemon
1y
1
16
Generalized Kelly betting
Linda Linsefors
4y
5
12
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
10
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
8
Kelly Criteria and Two Envelopes
Wei_Dai
10y
1
6
[Discussion] The Kelly criterion and consequences for decision making under uncertainty
Metus
9y
15