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alive
21 posts
Betting
12 posts
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
97
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
94
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
91
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
70
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
64
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
59
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
52
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
50
Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
MileyCyrus
11y
26
42
Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself
MBlume
12y
69
41
PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
53
38
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
34
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
33
Betting Thread
Amandango
2y
2
31
Bets and updating
Eigil Rischel
3y
3
110
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
83
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
55
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
55
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
49
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
44
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
20
Kelly Betting Discussion
Raemon
1y
1
14
Generalized Kelly betting
Linda Linsefors
4y
5
13
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
11
Kelly Criteria and Two Envelopes
Wei_Dai
10y
1
9
[Discussion] The Kelly criterion and consequences for decision making under uncertainty
Metus
9y
15
8
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8