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meritocratic
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alive
21 posts
Betting
12 posts
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
26
How to place a bet on the end of the world
AllAmericanBreakfast
8mo
13
91
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
70
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
94
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
34
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
38
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
52
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
33
Betting Thread
Amandango
2y
2
59
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
31
Bets and updating
Eigil Rischel
3y
3
29
Who wants to be a Millionaire?
Bucky
3y
1
97
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
64
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
12
Ongoing free money at PredictIt
knite
2y
22
110
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
13
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
8
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
83
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
44
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
49
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
55
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
55
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
20
Kelly Betting Discussion
Raemon
1y
1
14
Generalized Kelly betting
Linda Linsefors
4y
5
11
Kelly Criteria and Two Envelopes
Wei_Dai
10y
1
9
[Discussion] The Kelly criterion and consequences for decision making under uncertainty
Metus
9y
15