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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
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alive
21 posts
Betting
12 posts
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
30
How to place a bet on the end of the world
AllAmericanBreakfast
8mo
13
102
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
65
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
37
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
64
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
75
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
33
Betting Thread
Amandango
2y
2
31
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
80
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
28
Bets and updating
Eigil Rischel
3y
3
78
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
105
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
23
Kelly bettors
DanielFilan
4y
3
68
Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
MileyCyrus
11y
26
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
14
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
56
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
47
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
61
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
19
Kelly Betting Discussion
Raemon
1y
1
45
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
12
Generalized Kelly betting
Linda Linsefors
4y
5
14
Kelly Criteria and Two Envelopes
Wei_Dai
10y
1
12
[Discussion] The Kelly criterion and consequences for decision making under uncertainty
Metus
9y
15