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alive
21 posts
Betting
12 posts
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
105
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
102
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
80
Bet or update: fixing the will-to-wager assumption
cousin_it
5y
61
78
Even Odds
Scott Garrabrant
8y
47
75
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
68
Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
MileyCyrus
11y
26
65
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
64
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
53
Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself
MBlume
12y
69
46
PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
53
37
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
34
[link] Betting on bad futures
fortyeridania
10y
20
33
Betting Thread
Amandango
2y
2
31
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
61
The Art of the Overbet
Zvi
4y
6
56
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
47
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
45
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
19
Kelly Betting Discussion
Raemon
1y
1
14
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
14
Kelly Criteria and Two Envelopes
Wei_Dai
10y
1
12
Generalized Kelly betting
Linda Linsefors
4y
5
12
[Discussion] The Kelly criterion and consequences for decision making under uncertainty
Metus
9y
15
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8