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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
33 posts
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
106
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
14
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
6
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
30
How to place a bet on the end of the world
AllAmericanBreakfast
8mo
13
88
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
102
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
56
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
47
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
65
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
37
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
64
Of arguments and wagers
paulfchristiano
2y
6
75
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
33
Betting Thread
Amandango
2y
2
31
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
21
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0
68
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
39
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
31
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
25
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
28
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
24
Forecasting Fusion Power
Daniel Kokotajlo
6mo
7
39
2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
Zvi
10mo
2
38
Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
Zvi
10mo
11
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
SimonM
1y
5
80
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
10
Kolmogorov's AI Forecast
interstice
6mo
1
51
Delegate a Forecast
Amandango
2y
25