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meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
33 posts
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
36 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
114
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
10
AGI as a Black Swan Event
Stephen McAleese
16d
8
12
Notes on Caution
David Gross
19d
0
78
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
22
How to place a bet on the end of the world
AllAmericanBreakfast
8mo
13
80
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
75
The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
lsusr
2y
19
113
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
41
The Kelly Criterion in 3D
lsusr
1y
17
45
Bet On Biden
sapphire
2y
89
42
Kelly Bet or Update?
abramdemski
2y
23
31
Calculating Kelly
abramdemski
1y
18
65
How to Understand and Mitigate Risk
Matt Goldenberg
3y
30
33
Betting Thread
Amandango
2y
2
31
A Tentative Timeline of The Near Future (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability
Yitz
15d
0
44
Calibration of a thousand predictions
KatjaGrace
2mo
7
49
Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
elifland
3mo
0
41
Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?
elifland
3mo
7
27
Short story speculating on possible ramifications of AI on the art world
Yitz
3mo
8
34
Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022
elifland
5mo
3
61
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
SimonM
11mo
12
30
2022 ACX predictions: market prices
Sam Marks
9mo
2
30
Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
Zvi
10mo
11
92
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
14
Operationalizing two tasks in Gary Marcus’s AGI challenge
Bill Benzon
6mo
3
51
Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
SimonM
1y
5
12
Forecasting Fusion Power
Daniel Kokotajlo
6mo
7
21
2022 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
Zvi
10mo
2