Go Back
Choose this branch
Choose this branch
meritocratic
regular
democratic
hot
top
alive
105 posts
Forecasts (Specific Predictions)
Prediction Markets
Betting
Kelly Criterion
Black Swans
102 posts
Parenting
Family planning
Developmental Psychology
Polyamory
205
Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
aphyer
2y
49
148
Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?
Zvi
4y
18
133
Tales from Prediction Markets
ike
1y
15
129
Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Rebecca Kossnick
2y
15
117
Unknown Knowns
Zvi
4y
17
114
Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority
Scott Garrabrant
28d
9
113
The Kelly Criterion
Zvi
4y
24
92
Atari early
KatjaGrace
2y
4
89
Prediction Markets Are About Being Right
Zvi
4y
7
89
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott Alexander
11y
60
84
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Zvi
4y
8
80
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem
abramdemski
2y
14
78
Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
abramdemski
1y
20
78
Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful
aphyer
2mo
17
475
Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners
jefftk
1y
35
243
Notes from "Don't Shoot the Dog"
juliawise
1y
10
190
Notes on "The Anthropology of Childhood"
juliawise
2y
10
184
Growing Independence
jefftk
2y
28
160
parenting rules
Dave Orr
1y
9
127
Meadow Theory
Duncan_Sabien
9mo
15
117
Experiences raising children in shared housing
juliawise
12mo
4
107
Polyhacking
Alicorn
11y
603
93
Experiences in applying "The Biodeterminist's Guide to Parenting"
juliawise
7y
34
83
How to parent more predictably
jefftk
4y
1
76
Should I delay having children to take advantage of polygenic screening?
Mati_Roy
1y
51
74
Kids Posts Retrospective
jefftk
8mo
1
73
Book Review: How To Talk So Little Kids Will Listen
weft
1y
6
71
Successful Mentoring on Parenting, Arranged Through LessWrong
supposedlyfun
1y
22