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alive
22 posts
Futurism
18 posts
Absurdity Heuristic
Hindsight Bias
143
What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
87
60
After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you
Eliezer Yudkowsky
9y
107
33
Could we send a message to the distant future?
paulfchristiano
4y
23
31
The Thing That I Protect
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
24
31
Outline of possible Singularity scenarios (that are not completely disastrous)
Wei_Dai
11y
40
31
Lone Genius Bias and Returns on Additional Researchers
ChrisHallquist
9y
64
29
Scrying for outcomes where the problem of deepfakes has been solved
mako yass
3y
10
27
The Accord
Timothy Underwood
1y
1
27
Isaac Asimov's predictions for 2019 from 1984
Jan_Kulveit
3y
1
26
On Becoming Clueless
Martin Sustrik
3y
2
25
Solstice Movie Review: Summer Wars
JohnBuridan
6mo
6
25
A Quick Taxonomy of Arguments for Theoretical Engineering Capabilities
Ruby
3y
1
25
Against easy superintelligence: the unforeseen friction argument
Stuart_Armstrong
9y
48
24
What does the world look like, the day before FAI efforts succeed?
10y
64
165
Talking Snakes: A Cautionary Tale
Scott Alexander
13y
232
141
Stranger Than History
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
336
105
Universal Law
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
26
78
Hindsight bias
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
25
61
The Correct Contrarian Cluster
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
255
54
The Zombie Preacher of Somerset
Scott Alexander
13y
34
45
Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
10
37
Common sense as a prior
Nick_Beckstead
9y
215
35
Why is the Future So Absurd?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
17
25
Beware the Unsurprised
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
3
24
Existing Absurd Technologies
Desrtopa
11y
59
21
What is bunk?
12y
108
20
Request: Interesting Invertible Facts
Eliezer Yudkowsky
12y
50
9
Regret, Hindsight Bias and First-Person Experience
Stabilizer
8y
2