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alive
22 posts
Futurism
18 posts
Absurdity Heuristic
Hindsight Bias
116
What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
87
77
After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you
Eliezer Yudkowsky
9y
107
39
Outline of possible Singularity scenarios (that are not completely disastrous)
Wei_Dai
11y
40
39
Against easy superintelligence: the unforeseen friction argument
Stuart_Armstrong
9y
48
37
Could we send a message to the distant future?
paulfchristiano
4y
23
37
Lone Genius Bias and Returns on Additional Researchers
ChrisHallquist
9y
64
36
Isaac Asimov's predictions for 2019 from 1984
Jan_Kulveit
3y
1
36
What does the world look like, the day before FAI efforts succeed?
10y
64
34
On Becoming Clueless
Martin Sustrik
3y
2
32
The Thing That I Protect
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
24
29
A Quick Taxonomy of Arguments for Theoretical Engineering Capabilities
Ruby
3y
1
27
Thoughts on minimizing designer baby drama
John_Maxwell
7y
195
26
Scrying for outcomes where the problem of deepfakes has been solved
mako yass
3y
10
22
Solstice Movie Review: Summer Wars
JohnBuridan
6mo
6
173
Talking Snakes: A Cautionary Tale
Scott Alexander
13y
232
107
Stranger Than History
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
336
89
Universal Law
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
26
72
Hindsight bias
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
25
66
The Correct Contrarian Cluster
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
255
61
The Zombie Preacher of Somerset
Scott Alexander
13y
34
52
Common sense as a prior
Nick_Beckstead
9y
215
51
Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
10
42
Why is the Future So Absurd?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
17
36
Beware the Unsurprised
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
3
34
Existing Absurd Technologies
Desrtopa
11y
59
29
Request: Interesting Invertible Facts
Eliezer Yudkowsky
12y
50
26
What is bunk?
12y
108
13
Attempts to Debias Hindsight Backfire!
Gram_Stone
6y
9