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alive
22 posts
Futurism
18 posts
Absurdity Heuristic
Hindsight Bias
94
After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you
Eliezer Yudkowsky
9y
107
89
What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?
Daniel Kokotajlo
1y
87
53
Against easy superintelligence: the unforeseen friction argument
Stuart_Armstrong
9y
48
48
What does the world look like, the day before FAI efforts succeed?
10y
64
47
Outline of possible Singularity scenarios (that are not completely disastrous)
Wei_Dai
11y
40
45
Isaac Asimov's predictions for 2019 from 1984
Jan_Kulveit
3y
1
43
Lone Genius Bias and Returns on Additional Researchers
ChrisHallquist
9y
64
42
On Becoming Clueless
Martin Sustrik
3y
2
41
Could we send a message to the distant future?
paulfchristiano
4y
23
34
Thoughts on minimizing designer baby drama
John_Maxwell
7y
195
33
The Thing That I Protect
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
24
33
A Quick Taxonomy of Arguments for Theoretical Engineering Capabilities
Ruby
3y
1
23
Scrying for outcomes where the problem of deepfakes has been solved
mako yass
3y
10
21
What could be done with RNA and DNA sequencing that's 1000x cheaper than it's now?
ChristianKl
4y
7
181
Talking Snakes: A Cautionary Tale
Scott Alexander
13y
232
73
Universal Law
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
26
73
Stranger Than History
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
336
71
The Correct Contrarian Cluster
Eliezer Yudkowsky
13y
255
68
The Zombie Preacher of Somerset
Scott Alexander
13y
34
67
Common sense as a prior
Nick_Beckstead
9y
215
66
Hindsight bias
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
25
57
Absurdity Heuristic, Absurdity Bias
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
10
49
Why is the Future So Absurd?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
17
47
Beware the Unsurprised
Eliezer Yudkowsky
15y
3
44
Existing Absurd Technologies
Desrtopa
11y
59
38
Request: Interesting Invertible Facts
Eliezer Yudkowsky
12y
50
31
What is bunk?
12y
108
18
Attempts to Debias Hindsight Backfire!
Gram_Stone
6y
9